Thesis score86/100Current score
AI infrastructure demand and earnings visibility continue to strengthen the long-term thesis. Position sizing is now a geopolitics problem as much as an earnings one.
Core assumptions
AI infrastructure demandSTRENGTHENING
Data-center revenue growthINTACT
Platform and software moatSTRENGTHENING
Customer concentrationWATCH
Taiwan / export restrictionsAT RISK
What strengthened
Hyperscaler AI spending remains elevated
New architecture demand visibility improved
Software ecosystem adoption expanding
What weakened
China revenue remains constrained
Customer concentration stays elevated
Valuation embeds strong execution
Thesis breakers
Material slowdown in AI capex
Loss of platform leadership
Sustained disruption of Taiwan foundry supply
Next verificationNext earnings · Hyperscaler capex · Taiwan Strait attention